Impact Forecasting: The Future of Weather Companies

Most people think that the key to a successful weather company is providing timely and accurate forecasts. While that’s certainly essential, it’s only part of the equation. Going forward, the success of weather companies requires they do much more than furnish clients with forecasts of precipitation, winds and temperatures. They must also help forecast the impact of weather on a client’s business operations. An excellent example of “impact forecasting” is what DTN does for utility companies. In the past, we would have given utility clients advance notice of the arrival of a significant weather event, such as a severe thunderstorm complex or a large-scale windstorm. We’d explain that winds would switch to the northwest and gust at over 60 miles per hour for up to six hours. It would then be up to our client to determine what to do with this weather information — whether they should make arrangements to have on-call staff at the ready to repair downed power lines, etc. Now, however, through the use of Storm Impact Analytics, we can provide estimates for the amount and extent of damage such an event might cause. For example, we can tell a customer that the upcoming storm will cause from 2,000 to 2,500 outages that may last six hours. This kind of information allows them to prepare for high-impact events in a deliberate, purposeful way. Moving from forecasting weather to forecasting its likely impact requires a collaborative effort with our clients, a review of historical weather data and…

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